Why was Seth Rich killed?

On July 10, 2016, at 4:20 AM, DNC staffer Seth Rich was found suffering from gunshot wounds at an intersection near his home in Bloomingdale, Washington D.C. He died at a local hospital a few hours later. No arrests have been made so far in the subsequent investigation.

While the general assumption is that Rich died in a failed robbery attempt, some evidence, such as the fact that his belongings were not taken, gave rise to the theory that his murder had to do with his position at the DNC. When Julian Assange mentioned Rich a month after the murder these suspicions amplified, since Assange's words were interpreted by many to mean that Rich was a WikiLeaks source.

Rootclaim’s analysis finds that it is likely that Seth Rich’s murder was a robbery gone wrong.

On its own, the evidence does not differentiate well between the “Robbery” and the two “Arranged” hypotheses. On the one hand, some pieces of evidence, such as Rich’s possessions not being taken, are more likely under the “Arranged” hypotheses. On the other hand, other pieces of evidence, such as Rich being found conscious and breathing, are more likely under the “Robbery” hypothesis. The main factor that distinguishes between these hypotheses is thus the Starting Point likelihoods. It is exceedingly rare for junior staffers in political parties, or even governments, to be murdered under circumstances related to their position. Robbery-murders are more common in comparison.

If Rich was killed because of his role as a DNC staffer, then it is more likely that the murder was arranged by an organization other than the DNC. This is because some evidence, such as Rich being hired for a new position in the Democratic Party, is less likely if the DNC arranged the murder. Moreover, in the Starting Point, it is less likely that the DNC arranged the murder than that another organization did so, because the latter option covers various organizations, including some that are more willing to resort to murder than the DNC.

The pieces of evidence that relate directly to Rich being a WikiLeaks source - including Assange’s interview - do suggest that it is plausible that Rich was a WikiLeaks source (and, consequently, support the hypothesis that the DNC arranged Rich’s murder). However, these pieces of evidence are not enough to counter the low likelihood assigned to this scenario when considering the analysis as a whole.

Overall, due to the higher Starting Point of the “Robbery” hypothesis and the ambiguity of the evidence, this Rootclaim analysis indicates that it is likely that Rich's death was a result of an attempted robbery.