Sources

Discussion

This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Was Seth Rich a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak)?

09 Oct, 2016

This topic is part of a broader analysis on Why was Seth Rich killed?

Scenarios

Calculated Conclusions

Conclusions

1

Not DNC; not source:

The DNC did not arrange Seth Rich's murder; he was not a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).

2

Not DNC; source:

The DNC did not arrange Seth Rich's murder; he was a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).

3

DNC; source:

The DNC arranged Seth Rich's murder; he was a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).

4

DNC; not source:

The DNC arranged Seth Rich's murder; he was not a WikiLeaks source (in the DNC email leak).

Implied plausibility

Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.

Not DNC; not source

98%

Not DNC; source

1.6%

DNC; source

0.2%

DNC; not source

0.2%

Compatibility with evidence

Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.

Not DNC; not source

91%

Not DNC; source

DNC; source

0.9%

DNC; not source

0.2%

Conclusion

Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.

Not DNC; not source

91%

Not DNC; source

DNC; source

0.9%

DNC; not source

0.2%

Analysis

Information provided by WikiLeaks (1 item)

Julian Assange mentioned Rich's unsolved murder in an interview with Dutch television, saying that his sources take major risks, and that they are concerned when events like these happen. Shortly after the interview, WikiLeaks announced a $20,000 reward for information leading to a conviction for the murder of Seth Rich.

Assange mentions Rich in an interview with Nieuwshuur (published 9 August 2016)

Not DNC; not source

12%

Not DNC; source

38%

DNC; source

38%

DNC; not source

12%

Not DNC; not source

12%

Not DNC; source

38%

DNC; source

38%

DNC; not source

12%

Other possible sources (2 items)

A source at the DNC claims that the email leak was a remote attack from the Russian government, and that there is no indication that an insider was involved.

Sources: Newsweek

Not DNC; not source

28%

Not DNC; source

21%

DNC; source

24%

DNC; not source

28%

Not DNC; not source

28%

Not DNC; source

21%

DNC; source

24%

DNC; not source

28%

The hacker Guccifer 2.0 claims to be responsible for the leak.

Sources: Motherboard

Guccifer 2.0

twitter.com

Not DNC; not source

33%

Not DNC; source

17%

DNC; source

17%

DNC; not source

33%

Not DNC; not source

33%

Not DNC; source

17%

DNC; source

17%

DNC; not source

33%

Evidence (2 items)

Craig Murray, a former British diplomat associated with WikiLeaks, said that the emails were leaked by American citizens with legal access to the information, and that he received the materials via an intermediary in a meeting in Washington D.C.

Sources: Daily Mail

Craig Murray, an associate of Julian Assange

www.globalresearch.ca

Not DNC; not source

10%

Not DNC; source

40%

DNC; source

40%

DNC; not source

10%

Not DNC; not source

10%

Not DNC; source

40%

DNC; source

40%

DNC; not source

10%

An anonymous federal investigator who reviewed an FBI forensic report detailing the contents of Rich's computer says that there is evidence on the computer that shows that Rich sent thousands of DNC emails to Gavin MacFadyen, a journalist who was the director of WikiLeaks.

Sources: Fox News (later retracted)