This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read
Question
Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016?
29 Sep, 2016Hypotheses
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
42%
The Russian Air Force carried out the attack.
[1]
42%
2
40%
The Russian and Syrian air forces carried out the attack jointly.
[2]
40%
3
13%
The Syrian Air Force carried out the attack.
[3]
[4]
13%
4
5%
Opposition ground forces carried out the attack.
[5]
[6]
5%
5
0.4%
The US Air Force carried out the attack.
[7]
0.4%
Summary
On September 19, 2016 at around 7 PM local time, a UN aid convoy carrying vital supplies for tens of thousands of Syrian civilians in a besieged area south-west of Aleppo was attacked as it was being unloaded at a Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC) warehouse in Urum al-Kubra. 18 civilians were killed, 18 of the 31 trucks were completely destroyed, and neighboring buildings, including the warehouse and a clinic, were damaged in the three-hour attack.
Following the attack, Russia and the United States blamed one another. Russia offered a number of claims, some contradictory. The UN and Human Rights Watch both called for an investigation and raised the possibility that this was a deliberate attack on civilians, and thus a war crime. The attacks highlighted the collapse of a fragile week-long cease-fire that had been supported by Russia and the US.
The Rootclaim analysis finds that the most likely explanation is that the Russian Air Force was behind the attack on the convoy, either as the sole actor, or in conjunction with the Syrian Air Force. It is unlikely that the Syrian Air Force acted alone, and even less likely that the attack was carried out by opposition ground forces. Lastly, the US Air Force is extremely unlikely to have been involved.
As always, this conclusion is based on a mathematical integration of many pieces of evidence and inputs, including:
-
The initial low likelihood of American involvement considering the location of the attack and which military forces were active in the area at the time.
-
Extensive damage and fragmentation seen in images of the scene, videos of large explosions and reports of aircraft sounds overhead, increase the likelihood of an aerial attack, which in turn reduces the likelihood of opposition involvement.
-
Pro-Russian reports on social media initially described this as a successful Russian attack on an opposition weapons convoy. Together with the attack’s timing at night, this raises the likelihood this was a Russian attack involving a mistake in target identification.
-
Images of an unexploded Russian-made bomb further raise the likelihood of Russian or Syrian involvement.
Key Evidence
Contribution
1
Pro-government social media accounts initially reported a Russian attack on a Nusra Front convoy.
Russia
39%
Joint
33%
Syria
11%
Opposition
11%
USA
6%
Russia
39%
Joint
33%
Syria
11%
Opposition
11%
USA
6%
2
Scenario A:
The damage in the photo was caused by a bomb which fell through the roof and exploded.
Scenario B:
The damage in the photo was caused by an unexploded bomb falling through the roof.
Scenario C:
The damage in the photo was caused by a mortar shot through the roof.
Russia
14%
Joint
14%
Syria
14%
Opposition
44%
USA
14%
Russia
14%
Joint
14%
Syria
14%
Opposition
44%
USA
14%
3
Photos show parts of Russian-made bombs and projectiles at the scene (including the tail fin of an OFAB 250-270 high-explosive fragmentation bomb).
Sources: Bellingcat
Russia
33%
Joint
33%
Syria
20%
Opposition
8%
USA
7%
Russia
33%
Joint
33%
Syria
20%
Opposition
8%
USA
7%
4
Neither Russia, nor Syria nor the United States publicly presented any satellite or other evidence indicating who may have been responsible for the attack.
Sources: RT
Russia
16%
Joint
16%
Syria
16%
Opposition
37%
USA
16%
Russia
16%
Joint
16%
Syria
16%
Opposition
37%
USA
16%
5
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford testified to the US Congress that Russian planes had flown above the convoy just before the attack and that Syrian planes were also in the area.
Sources: US Senate
Russia
24%
Joint
27%
Syria
24%
Opposition
22%
USA
4.2%
Russia
24%
Joint
27%
Syria
24%
Opposition
22%
USA
4.2%
Combined contribution of 13 remaining elements.
Russia
30%
Joint
46%
Syria
21%
Opposition
0.7%
USA
2.1%
Analysis
Evidence
Starting Point (1 item)
Social Media Reports (2 items)
Pro-government social media accounts initially reported a Russian attack on a Nusra Front convoy.
Russia
39%
Joint
33%
Syria
11%
Opposition
11%
USA
6%
Russia
39%
Joint
33%
Syria
11%
Opposition
11%
USA
6%
Sky monitors warned of a plane taking off from an air base used exclusively by Russia, followed shortly by a second plane from another location.
Sources: New York Times
Russia
24%
Joint
27%
Syria
17%
Opposition
19%
USA
14%
Russia
24%
Joint
27%
Syria
17%
Opposition
19%
USA
14%
Monitoring (2 items)
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that a US drone appeared in the area minutes before the attack began.
Sources: RT
Russia
20%
Joint
20%
Syria
20%
Opposition
20%
USA
20%
Russia
20%
Joint
20%
Syria
20%
Opposition
20%
USA
20%
Scenario A:
Yes, Russia was monitoring the convoy within two hours of the attack
Scenario B:
No, Russia was not monitoring the convoy within two hours of the attack
Russia
19%
Joint
19%
Syria
20%
Opposition
20%
USA
20%
Russia
19%
Joint
19%
Syria
20%
Opposition
20%
USA
20%
Forensics (6 items)
The damage caused by the attack was extensive (18 trucks were destroyed, along with neighboring buildings).
Sources: BBC
Russia
24%
Joint
24%
Syria
18%
Opposition
9%
USA
24%
Russia
24%
Joint
24%
Syria
18%
Opposition
9%
USA
24%
There is evidence of significant fragmentation at the scene of the attack.
Sources: Bellingcat
Russia
22%
Joint
22%
Syria
22%
Opposition
12%
USA
22%
Russia
22%
Joint
22%
Syria
22%
Opposition
12%
USA
22%
Photos show parts of Russian-made bombs and projectiles at the scene (including the tail fin of an OFAB 250-270 high-explosive fragmentation bomb).
Sources: Bellingcat
Russia
33%
Joint
33%
Syria
20%
Opposition
8%
USA
7%
Russia
33%
Joint
33%
Syria
20%
Opposition
8%
USA
7%
Photos show what could be part of a crude, improvised bomb (often referred to as a barrel bomb) in the debris of the attack.
Russia
20%
Joint
21%
Syria
21%
Opposition
20%
USA
20%
Russia
20%
Joint
21%
Syria
21%
Opposition
20%
USA
20%
Scenario A:
The damage in the photo was caused by a bomb which fell through the roof and exploded.
Scenario B:
The damage in the photo was caused by an unexploded bomb falling through the roof.
Scenario C:
The damage in the photo was caused by a mortar shot through the roof.
Russia
14%
Joint
14%
Syria
14%
Opposition
44%
USA
14%
Russia
14%
Joint
14%
Syria
14%
Opposition
44%
USA
14%
Large explosions can be seen and heard in alleged videos of the attack.
Russia
22%
Joint
22%
Syria
22%
Opposition
14%
USA
22%
Russia
22%
Joint
22%
Syria
22%
Opposition
14%
USA
22%
Air Presence (3 items)
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford testified to the US Congress that Russian planes had flown above the convoy just before the attack and that Syrian planes were also in the area.
Sources: US Senate
Russia
24%
Joint
27%
Syria
24%
Opposition
22%
USA
4.2%
Russia
24%
Joint
27%
Syria
24%
Opposition
22%
USA
4.2%
Helicopters and other aircraft were heard just before the attack.
Sources: Eyewitnesses
Russia
22%
Joint
24%
Syria
24%
Opposition
12%
USA
17%
Russia
22%
Joint
24%
Syria
24%
Opposition
12%
USA
17%
A UN Human Rights Council report on the incident claimed that Syrian Su-24M strike aircraft and at least one Syrian Mi-8 attack helicopter were operating in and around Orum al-Kubra at the time of the attack, but that no coalition or Russian strike aircraft were nearby then.
Sources: UN Human Rights Council
Russia
21%
Joint
21%
Syria
22%
Opposition
19%
USA
17%
Russia
21%
Joint
21%
Syria
22%
Opposition
19%
USA
17%
Claims (2 items)
Neither Russia, nor Syria nor the United States publicly presented any satellite or other evidence indicating who may have been responsible for the attack.
Sources: RT
Russia
16%
Joint
16%
Syria
16%
Opposition
37%
USA
16%
Russia
16%
Joint
16%
Syria
16%
Opposition
37%
USA
16%
Eyewitnesses reported that both air to surface and surface to surface missiles were involved in the attack.
Sources: CBS News
Russia
20%
Joint
20%
Syria
20%
Opposition
20%
USA
20%
Russia
20%
Joint
20%
Syria
20%
Opposition
20%
USA
20%
Other evidence (2 items)
A truck with mortar passed by the convoy hours before the attack.
Sources: Russian Ministry of Defense
Russia
20%
Joint
20%
Syria
20%
Opposition
19%
USA
20%
Russia
20%
Joint
20%
Syria
20%
Opposition
19%
USA
20%
The aid convoy was attacked at night.
Sources: Witnesses
Russia
22%
Joint
22%
Syria
22%
Opposition
12%
USA
22%
Russia
22%
Joint
22%
Syria
22%
Opposition
12%
USA
22%
Storyline Assumptions
Assumptions that derive from the evidence above are presented and evaluated here for each hypothesis.
Storyline assumptions:
Likelihood given hypothesis
(including preceding assumptions)
Discussion
Photos show parts of Russian-made bombs and projectiles at the scene (including the tail fin of an OFAB 250-270 http://www.dunarit.com/en/aviationbombs/aviation-bombs-ofab-250-270-high-explosive.html" target="_blank">high-explosive fragmentation bomb).