Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

What caused the damage seen in the picture of a building with fragments found inside?

23 Mar, 2017

Who attacked the aid convoy in Syria on September 19, 2016? 

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

62%
Unexploded bomb:

The damage in the photo was caused by an unexploded bomb falling through the roof.

62%

2

35%
Mortar:

The damage in the photo was caused by a mortar shot through the roof.

35%

3

2.2%
Exploded bomb:

The damage in the photo was caused by a bomb which fell through the roof and exploded.

2.2%
Implied plausibility
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Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Unexploded bomb
27%
Mortar
10%
Exploded bomb
63%
Compatibility with evidence
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Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Unexploded bomb
62%
Mortar
35%
Exploded bomb
2.2%
Conclusion
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Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Unexploded bomb
62%
Mortar
35%
Exploded bomb
2.2%

Analysis

Evidence (4 items)

There are intact bars in the roof where the entry hole is located.

Unexploded bomb
24%
Mortar
56%
Exploded bomb
20%
Unexploded bomb
24%
Mortar
56%
Exploded bomb
20%

The hole seen in the roof is not directly above the impact spot.

Unexploded bomb
26%
Mortar
49%
Exploded bomb
26%
Unexploded bomb
26%
Mortar
49%
Exploded bomb
26%

Photos show a shallow crater at the scene of the attack.

Sources: Lars Bromley, research adviser at UNOSAT
Attack scene photos show an apparent crater.
Attack scene photos show an apparent crater.
www.bbc.com
Unexploded bomb
69%
Mortar
23%
Exploded bomb
8%
Unexploded bomb
69%
Mortar
23%
Exploded bomb
8%

The building is structurally intact, and its walls and roof show burn marks but no signs of fragmentation.

Unexploded bomb
46%
Mortar
46%
Exploded bomb
8%
Unexploded bomb
46%
Mortar
46%
Exploded bomb
8%

Discussioninfo icon

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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Johan Belin
Dec 12, 2017 at 8:06 AM
The hole in the roof and the damage in the room are unrelated
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Johan Belin
Dec 17, 2017 at 11:16 PM
I don't have any good answers, it is all based on the entry hole The hole is perfectly round as if it was man made. A building engineer would be able to judge the probability that a heavy falling object could create a perfect round hole, like it was cutting through some soft material. Concrete breaks and if the roof was of good quality it would cave in before it allowed an object to pass through it. It seems highly unlikely to me. If it was an exploding bomb then it would be even less likely, the hole would definitely not be round and there has clearly not been any bomb exploding in the room. So for question a: the hole was man made beforehand for a different purpose, reason unknown. And b: it doesn't look to hard to create that scene, boxes and litter thrown around, the damage on the walls could be old. I am not saying that these explanations are good ones, but they seem far more likely than a bomb creating a perfect round hole in concrete.
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Steven
Dec 17, 2017 at 9:59 AM
Thanks for the comment Johan. Can you suggest the most likely explanation for a. what would have created the hole (if not one of the provided explanations), and b. what would have caused the damage in the room? We can then assess the evidence relative to those suggestions, and relate the scenario itself to the overall analysis.
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Charles Wood
Sep 3, 2017 at 7:24 AM
The damage was cased by a hand grenade or equivalent and the bomb case was then planted. The damage in the room was far too small to be from a 250kg bomb. The hole in the ceiling was too blocked to allow a 250 kg bomb casing to pass through. A plausible inference is the bomb casing was planted after a small explosive was set off.