Question
Was the Pakistani government informed of the US raid beforehand?
12 Mar, 2017Scenarios
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
2
Analysis
Before the Raid (3 items)
Based on the intelligence available at the time, there was only a 55% certainty that Bin Laden was in the compound; not all of the national security advisers agreed with the decision.
National Security officials at the White House rejected a plan for a joint US-Pakistani raid to prevent information about the raid getting out.
General Petraeus, the top US commander in Afghanistan, was not aware of the raid until just before it began.
During the Raid (4 items)
The Pakistani military didn't react initially to the US raid, and even after air force jets were dispatched, US forces were able to leave unimpeded.
Neighbors called Pakistani police but the police were told not to respond by the Pakistani military.
Bin Laden was killed within 12 minutes, but the Seal team that carried out the raid waited until 40 minutes had passed to leave.
After the Raid (5 items)
President Barack Obama's speech following the raid didn't mention any Pakistani knowledge of or participation in the raid.
The Pakistani government's official reaction to the US raid was relatively generic and low-key.
A Pakistani security official who asked to remain anonymous said that Pakistan was only informed after the raid was over.
Former Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States Husain Haqqani said he wasn't aware of any Pakistani collusion in the raid.
Journalist Seymour Hersh claimed that the Pakistani army and the
Discussion
Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad?