Did Pakistan know that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad?

Although Osama Bin Laden became the world's most wanted man after September 11, 2001, with a 25 million dollar bounty on his head, it took almost a decade before he was finally located and killed. On May 2, 2011, two dozen US Navy Seals landed outside of a large compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, shooting and killing Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden's body was later dropped in the sea.

The raid on the compound, the killing of Bin Laden, and the revelation that he had apparently been hiding out in Pakistan for years, caught the world by surprise. A number of questions were raised, including whether the government of Pakistan, or its military intelligence, had been aware of Bin Laden's presence in the country, and whether the US had informed Pakistan of the impending raid.

Note: this analysis assumes that the US account of the capture is accurate. Some have doubted the veracity and accuracy of this account, a controversy that may be analyzed by Rootclaim in the future.

Rootclaim’s analysis finds that it is most likely (82%) that Pakistani intelligence--but not the rest of the government--knew that Osama Bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad. It is unlikely (8.5%) that the Pakistani government knew. It is similarly unlikely (9.6%) that neither the government nor its intelligence service knew about Bin Laden’s presence.

Rootclaim’s conclusion is based on a mathematical integration of many pieces of evidence and inputs, including:

1. As a starting point, it is less likely that the government or intelligence would have knowingly tolerated Bin Laden’s presence given his status as the most notorious fugitive of the time.

2. The proximity of Bin Laden’s compound to Pakistani military intelligence, and leaked intelligence emails claiming that intelligence officials knew Bin Laden was present, reduce the likelihood that Bin Laden’s presence was unknown to anyone in the Pakistani government or intelligence services.

3. Testimony by the former head of the ISI that Bin Laden’s stay was facilitated by the head of one of Pakistan’s intelligence services raises the likelihood that Pakistani intelligence knew he was present.

4. The former head of Afghanistan’s intelligence stating that he had warned the President of Pakistan at the time that Bin Laden was hiding near Abbottabad, although no action had been taken, raises the likelihood of government complicity.