This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read
Question
Was the Miss Universe 2015 mistake intentional?
31 Jan, 2016Hypotheses
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
96.2%
Steve Harvey misread the winner's card by mistake.
[1]
96.2%
2
3.4%
The mix-up was scripted by the producers without Steve Harvey's knowledge.
[2]
3.4%
3
0.4%
The mix-up was scripted by the producers and Steve Harvey together.
[3]
0.4%
4
Steve Harvey misread the winner's card intentionally, without the producers' knowledge.
Summary
On December 20, 2015, Steve Harvey incorrectly announced Miss Colombia as the winner at the Miss Universe pageant before announcing the actual winner, Miss Philippines. While some believed this was an honest mistake, others thought it was a scripted move to generate buzz for the floundering pageant industry. Meanwhile, the internet responded with multiple memes of Steve Harvey making mistakes; Steve Harvey himself even released a meme poking fun at the mix-up and starred in a related T-Mobile Superbowl ad.
Almost all of the evidence points towards an honest mistake. This includes Steve Harvey's initial failure to announce the runner up, the fact that the teleprompter named the correct winner of the pageant (Miss Philippines), and Steve Harvey’s reaction to the scandal in media appearances following the event. Further supporting the “Mistake” hypothesis, there were large gaps of time at the end of the televised program when everyone was standing around waiting for directions; a scripted mistake would likely have unfolded in a more dramatic fashion.
Key Evidence
Contribution
1
Steve Harvey expressed anger that no one else accepted (even partial) responsibility for the mix-up.
Sources: Today
Mistake
70%
Scripted w/o Steve
19%
Scripted with Steve
10%
Steve's intention
Mistake
70%
Scripted w/o Steve
19%
Scripted with Steve
10%
Steve's intention
2
Steve Harvey announced the (incorrect) winner of the title Miss Universe but did not announce who was the first runner up.
Mistake
67%
Scripted w/o Steve
11%
Scripted with Steve
22%
Steve's intention
Mistake
67%
Scripted w/o Steve
11%
Scripted with Steve
22%
Steve's intention
3
Steve Harvey said that the card he read from was different than the card used during rehearsal.
Sources: Today
Mistake
64%
Scripted w/o Steve
7%
Scripted with Steve
28%
Steve's intention
Mistake
64%
Scripted w/o Steve
7%
Scripted with Steve
28%
Steve's intention
4
The teleprompter read "Philippines take your first walk as Miss Universe" after Colombia was crowned (before Steve Harvey corrected his mistake and announced Philippines as the real winner).
Sources: Miss Australia Monika Radulovic
Mistake
49%
Scripted w/o Steve
2.7%
Scripted with Steve
49%
Steve's intention
Mistake
49%
Scripted w/o Steve
2.7%
Scripted with Steve
49%
Steve's intention
5
After the announcement of Miss Colombia, there was a large gap (almost two minutes) before Steve Harvey came back out to announce that Miss Philippines was the actual winner.
Mistake
9%
Scripted w/o Steve
51%
Scripted with Steve
40%
Steve's intention
Mistake
9%
Scripted w/o Steve
51%
Scripted with Steve
40%
Steve's intention
Combined contribution of 12 remaining elements.
Mistake
48%
Scripted w/o Steve
35%
Scripted with Steve
17%
Steve's intention
Analysis
Evidence
Starting Point (1 item)
Sequence of events (4 items)
Miss Colombia was (incorrectly) announced as the winner just before the show was scheduled to end (at approximately 6:58 PST) and the show ran over its allotted time.
Sources: Las Vegas Sun
Mistake
38%
Scripted w/o Steve
31%
Scripted with Steve
31%
Steve's intention
Mistake
38%
Scripted w/o Steve
31%
Scripted with Steve
31%
Steve's intention
The congratulatory music sequence for Miss Colombia lowers in volume and then ends as Harvey returns to the stage to announce the correct winner.
Mistake
33%
Scripted w/o Steve
33%
Scripted with Steve
33%
Steve's intention
Mistake
33%
Scripted w/o Steve
33%
Scripted with Steve
33%
Steve's intention
After the announcement of Miss Colombia, there was a large gap (almost two minutes) before Steve Harvey came back out to announce that Miss Philippines was the actual winner.
Mistake
9%
Scripted w/o Steve
51%
Scripted with Steve
40%
Steve's intention
Mistake
9%
Scripted w/o Steve
51%
Scripted with Steve
40%
Steve's intention
After the announcement that Miss Philippines was the actual winner, there was a large gap (almost two minutes) before the crown was transferred from Miss Colombia to Miss Philippines.
Mistake
47%
Scripted w/o Steve
27%
Scripted with Steve
27%
Steve's intention
Mistake
47%
Scripted w/o Steve
27%
Scripted with Steve
27%
Steve's intention
Steve Harvey's behavior before the pageant (2 items)
Steve Harvey was drinking and gambling hours before the Miss Universe pageant began.
Sources: An unnamed source that talked to TMZ
Mistake
34%
Scripted w/o Steve
33%
Scripted with Steve
33%
Steve's intention
Mistake
34%
Scripted w/o Steve
33%
Scripted with Steve
33%
Steve's intention
Scenario A:
Steve Harvey missed the ending of a Miss Universe rehearsal.
Scenario B:
Steve Harvey did not miss the ending of a Miss Universe rehearsal.
Mistake
34%
Scripted w/o Steve
33%
Scripted with Steve
33%
Steve's intention
Mistake
34%
Scripted w/o Steve
33%
Scripted with Steve
33%
Steve's intention
Steve Harvey's behavior during the pageant (4 items)
Steve Harvey announced the (incorrect) winner of the title Miss Universe but did not announce who was the first runner up.
Mistake
67%
Scripted w/o Steve
11%
Scripted with Steve
22%
Steve's intention
Mistake
67%
Scripted w/o Steve
11%
Scripted with Steve
22%
Steve's intention
Steve Harvey showed the card listing the winners to production staff. As Harvey turned to correct his mistake he seemed hesitant.
Mistake
51%
Scripted w/o Steve
30%
Scripted with Steve
19%
Steve's intention
Mistake
51%
Scripted w/o Steve
30%
Scripted with Steve
19%
Steve's intention
When Steve Harvey initially announced that Miss Colombia was the winner, he didn't tell her to take her
first walk as Miss Universe
.Mistake
54%
Scripted w/o Steve
23%
Scripted with Steve
23%
Steve's intention
Mistake
54%
Scripted w/o Steve
23%
Scripted with Steve
23%
Steve's intention
Steve Harvey took responsibility for the mistake on stage, and later apologized to Miss Colombia and Miss Philippines repeatedly.
Mistake
37%
Scripted w/o Steve
31%
Scripted with Steve
32%
Steve's intention
Mistake
37%
Scripted w/o Steve
31%
Scripted with Steve
32%
Steve's intention
Steve Harvey's behavior after the pageant (3 items)
Steve Harvey said that he read from the teleprompter.
Sources: Today
Mistake
32%
Scripted w/o Steve
36%
Scripted with Steve
32%
Steve's intention
Mistake
32%
Scripted w/o Steve
36%
Scripted with Steve
32%
Steve's intention
Steve Harvey said that the card he read from was different than the card used during rehearsal.
Sources: Today
Mistake
64%
Scripted w/o Steve
7%
Scripted with Steve
28%
Steve's intention
Mistake
64%
Scripted w/o Steve
7%
Scripted with Steve
28%
Steve's intention
Steve Harvey expressed anger that no one else accepted (even partial) responsibility for the mix-up.
Sources: Today
Mistake
70%
Scripted w/o Steve
19%
Scripted with Steve
10%
Steve's intention
Mistake
70%
Scripted w/o Steve
19%
Scripted with Steve
10%
Steve's intention
Other evidence (3 items)
The teleprompter read "Philippines take your first walk as Miss Universe" after Colombia was crowned (before Steve Harvey corrected his mistake and announced Philippines as the real winner).
Sources: Miss Australia Monika Radulovic
Mistake
49%
Scripted w/o Steve
2.7%
Scripted with Steve
49%
Steve's intention
Mistake
49%
Scripted w/o Steve
2.7%
Scripted with Steve
49%
Steve's intention
The day after the mix-up, the Miss Universe pageant announced that Harvey had been invited to host the 2016 pageant.
Sources: Mark Shapiro, Chief Content Officer of WME ING (owners of Miss Universe)
Mistake
27%
Scripted w/o Steve
36%
Scripted with Steve
36%
Steve's intention
Mistake
27%
Scripted w/o Steve
36%
Scripted with Steve
36%
Steve's intention
Miss Universe judge Perez Hilton said he thought that the pageant was rigged.
Mistake
33%
Scripted w/o Steve
33%
Scripted with Steve
33%
Steve's intention
Mistake
33%
Scripted w/o Steve
33%
Scripted with Steve
33%
Steve's intention
Storyline Assumptions
Assumptions that derive from the evidence above are presented and evaluated here for each hypothesis.
Storyline assumptions:
Likelihood given hypothesis
(including preceding assumptions)
Discussion
Did Steve Harvey miss the end of a Miss Universe rehearsal?
The day after the mix-up, the Miss Universe pageant announced that Harvey had been invited to host the 2016 pageant.
The day after the mix-up, the Miss Universe pageant announced that Harvey had been invited to host the 2016 pageant.