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Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Are the videos that allegedly associate Liwa al-Islam with the chemical attack in Ghouta real or fabricated?

31 May, 2015

This topic is part of a broader analysis on

Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

57%
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets:

The videos show opposition forces (

Liwa al-Islam
) firing chemical rockets on Al-Qabun and Jobar on August 21, 2013.

57%

2

27%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical:

The videos show opposition forces (

Liwa al-Islam
) firing non-chemical rockets on Al-Qabun and Jobar on August 21, 2013.

27%

3

11%
Government fabrication:

The videos were fabricated by the Syrian government to implicate the opposition in the Ghouta attack.

11%

4

6%
Other fabrication:

The videos were fabricated by someone other than the Syrian government to implicate one of the opposition groups in the Ghouta attack.

6%

5

No videos:
No such videos exist.
Implied plausibility
info icon
Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
32%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
60%
Government fabrication
6%
Other fabrication
1.6%
No videos
Compatibility with evidence
info icon
Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
57%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
27%
Government fabrication
11%
Other fabrication
6%
No videos
Conclusion
info icon
Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
57%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
27%
Government fabrication
11%
Other fabrication
6%
No videos

Analysis

Evidence (11 items)

The cameraman in the video says that opposition forces (

Liwa al-Islam
) are firing the rockets in the videos.

Sources: Transcript of the videos in the blog "Who Attacked Ghouta"
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
20%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
20%
Government fabrication
30%
Other fabrication
30%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
20%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
20%
Government fabrication
30%
Other fabrication
30%
No videos

In the videos, the cameraman says that the date is August 21, 2013. 

Sources: Transcript of the videos in the blog "Who Attacked Ghouta"
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
15%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
15%
Government fabrication
35%
Other fabrication
35%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
15%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
15%
Government fabrication
35%
Other fabrication
35%
No videos
Scenario A:

Yes, except for the cameraman (who isn't seen in the video).

Scenario B:

All of the fighters in the video are wearing gas masks, including the cameraman (who isn't seen in the video).

Scenario C:

No, not all of the fighters are wearing gas masks.

Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
19%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
4%
Government fabrication
38%
Other fabrication
38%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
19%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
4%
Government fabrication
38%
Other fabrication
38%
No videos

The cameraman says they're firing on Qabun and Jobar in the videos.

Sources: Transcript of the videos in the blog "Who Attacked Ghouta"
Alleged Liwa al-Islam video 3
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
43%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
43%
Government fabrication
7%
Other fabrication
7%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
43%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
43%
Government fabrication
7%
Other fabrication
7%
No videos

The cameraman calls the operation "Reeh Sarsar," a term previously associated with chemical warfare.

Sources: Transcript of the videos in the blog "Who Attacked Ghouta"
Alleged Liwa al-Islam video 1
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
27%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
24%
Government fabrication
24%
Other fabrication
24%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
27%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
24%
Government fabrication
24%
Other fabrication
24%
No videos

The video is poor quality and not professionally done (images in the videos are dark, the videos were recorded in portrait mode, and there is no

Liwa al-Islam
 logo on the videos.

Alleged Liwa al-Islam video 3
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
40%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
40%
Government fabrication
10%
Other fabrication
10%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
40%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
40%
Government fabrication
10%
Other fabrication
10%
No videos

The videos leaked on September 16, 2013 (part 1, part 2, part 3).

Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
13%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
13%
Government fabrication
38%
Other fabrication
38%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
13%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
13%
Government fabrication
38%
Other fabrication
38%
No videos

The video shows numerous fighters displaying the banner with the

Shehada
 that is common among Jihadi groups.

Alleged Liwa al-Islam video 1
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
11%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
11%
Government fabrication
39%
Other fabrication
39%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
11%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
11%
Government fabrication
39%
Other fabrication
39%
No videos

The fighters in one of the videos are seen using weapons other than a rocket launcher.

The howitzer cannon can be seen at 0:33
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
33%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
33%
Government fabrication
11%
Other fabrication
22%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
33%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
33%
Government fabrication
11%
Other fabrication
22%
No videos
There was no mention of sarin or other chemical weapons in the videos.
Sources: Transcript of the videos in the blog "Who Attacked Ghouta"
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
35%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
47%
Government fabrication
9%
Other fabrication
9%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
35%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
47%
Government fabrication
9%
Other fabrication
9%
No videos
The
Liwa al-Islam
 flag shown in the video is not the standard
Liwa al-Islam
 flag.
The more common Liwa al-Islam logo
The more common Liwa al-Islam logo
acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
10%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
10%
Government fabrication
40%
Other fabrication
40%
No videos
Liwa al-Islam chemical rockets
10%
Liwa al-Islam non-chemical
10%
Government fabrication
40%
Other fabrication
40%
No videos

Discussioninfo icon

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This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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