Background

This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Are all of the fighters in the videos wearing gas masks?

31 May, 2015

This topic is part of a broader analysis on

Are the videos that allegedly associate Liwa al-Islam with the chemical attack in Ghouta real or fabricated?

Scenarios

Calculated Conclusions

Conclusions

1

Yes except cameraman:

Yes, except for the cameraman (who isn't seen in the video).

2

Yes:

All of the fighters in the video are wearing gas masks, including the cameraman (who isn't seen in the video).

3

No:

No, not all of the fighters are wearing gas masks.

Implied plausibility

Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.

Yes except cameraman

7%

Yes

24%

No

69%

Compatibility with evidence

Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.

Yes except cameraman

49%

Yes

26%

No

25%

Conclusion

Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.

Yes except cameraman

49%

Yes

26%

No

25%

Analysis

Evidence (2 items)

The fighters who can be seen in the videos are wearing gas masks.

Alleged Liwa al-Islam video 1

Yes except cameraman

49%

Yes

49%

No

2.4%

Yes except cameraman

49%

Yes

49%

No

2.4%

The cameraman can be heard clearly in the videos.

The cameraman can be heard clearly

Yes except cameraman

47%

Yes

7%

No

47%

Yes except cameraman

47%

Yes

7%

No

47%

Discussion

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:

Are the videos that allegedly associate Liwa al-Islam with the chemical attack in Ghouta real or fabricated?

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