Background

This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

What was the DNR's concern with the black boxes?

10 May, 2015

This topic is part of a broader analysis on

Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?

Scenarios

Calculated Conclusions

Conclusions

1

DNR tamper:

The DNR was tampering with the evidence contained in the black boxes.

2

Unconcerned:

The DNR was unconcerned regarding the black boxes.

3

UA tamper:

The DNR was concerned that Ukraine would tamper with the evidence contained within the black boxes.

Implied plausibility

Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.

DNR tamper

25%

Unconcerned

65%

UA tamper

10%

Compatibility with evidence

Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.

DNR tamper

40%

Unconcerned

39%

UA tamper

20%

Conclusion

Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.

DNR tamper

40%

Unconcerned

39%

UA tamper

20%

Analysis

Evidence (2 items)

In an internal transmission, the DNR wanted to make sure that the black boxes from Malaysian airlines flight MH17 didn't fall into the hands of strangers.

Sources: Ukraine's security services

DNR tamper

36%

Unconcerned

26%

UA tamper

38%

DNR tamper

36%

Unconcerned

26%

UA tamper

38%

The DNR said they were concerned that Ukraine might tamper with the devices.

Sources: The Wall Street Journal

DNR tamper

37%

Unconcerned

20%

UA tamper

44%

DNR tamper

37%

Unconcerned

20%

UA tamper

44%

Discussion

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:

Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?

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