The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.
(93% probability)Question
What caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight 370?
01 Oct, 2020Answer
Background
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, seemingly without a trace. Investigators have struggled to discover what caused the plane to disappear as well as where it ended up. With only sparse evidence available, a probabilistic analysis is needed.
Flight MH370 left Kuala Lumpur at approximately 0:41 local Malaysian time (16:41 UTC), heading towards Beijing. It stopped transmitting its location and lost contact with civilian radar around 1:21, northeast of Kuala Lumpur. At about the same time, a Malaysian military radar detected a plane heading west from the location of flight MH370. That plane was last seen over the Andaman sea at 2:22.
Hypotheses Considered
Calculated Results
Calculated Results
1
93%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.
93%
2
4%
The co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, deliberately crashed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 while committing suicide.
4%
3
2.1%
Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 had an emergency (electrical, weather-related, or another event) that disrupted the flight but allowed it to continue flying for many hours.
2.1%
4
0.5%
Passengers hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
0.5%
5
0.3%
The pilot, Zaharie Ahmad Shah, hijacked Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 with the intent of landing the plane.
0.3%
6
0.03%
Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 crashed soon after takeoff in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down).
0.03%
Starting Point
Initial Probabilities
Name
Initial Likelihoods
Pilot suicide
6%
Co-pilot suicide
4.5%
Extended emergency
38%
Passenger hijack
14%
South China Sea
38%
Pilot hijacking
0.2%
The prior probability is based on commercial plane crashes from 1980-2015 which resulted in fatalities. In the interest of readability, all possible scenarios leading to a crash in the South China Sea (due to a fire, electrical problems, turbulence, a broken wing tip, or being shot down) have been condensed into one hypothesis, and most scenarios (aside from pilot suicide or a hijacking) leading to a crash in the Indian Ocean have been condensed into one hypothesis.
Name
Initial Likelihoods
Pilot suicide
6%
Co-pilot suicide
4.5%
Extended emergency
38%
Passenger hijack
14%
South China Sea
38%
Pilot hijacking
0.2%
Evidence
Effect
Communication and flight path
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
It appears that someone on MH370 deliberately stopped communications and flight tracking information in order to fly off course. Approximately 39 minutes after take-off, two minutes after signing off with the Malaysia control tower and before signing on with Ho Chi Minh control tower, MH370 ceased contact with no warning and no distress call, and disappeared from civilian radar. Military radars, which do not rely on communications from the aircraft, tracked an aircraft matching MH370’s profile flying west and making multiple adjustments to its flight path, seemingly straddling the border between Malaysia and Thailand.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Altitude
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
The plane that was presumably MH370 changed altitude (flying both extremely high and low). This may indicate an attempt to avoid radar or incapacitate the passengers and crew, increasing the likelihood of a suicide attempt or hijacking.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Flying South for hours
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
The unidentified plane assumed to be MH370 was not detected west of Penang Island, and data from an Inmarsat satellite indicated that MH370 continued flying for hours, on a route that took it south towards a point just west of Australia.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Plane in good condition
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Overall, the plane seemed to be in good condition (though it previously had a broken wing tip). There have been no reports of systemic problems from other similar Boeing 777-200 planes.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Pilot and co-pilot behavior
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
The pilot and co-pilot seemed stable, although according to some reports the pilot may have had some problems with his marriage. There were no reports of a suicide note, or any other social factors that would lead to suicide.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Captain's plans
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
The pilot practiced the presumed flight path of MH370 on his home flight simulator, and had no recorded social or business plans for after the flight.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Lack of terror suspects
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
There were no compelling terror suspects, though two Iranian passengers were traveling on fake passports in a manner consistent with asylum seekers.
There have been no public ransoms, demands, or parties otherwise claiming responsibility for what happened to Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Flammable materials on board
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
There was a shipment of flammable materials (lithium-ion batteries) in the cargo hold of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Debris
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Debris started showing up in the Indian Ocean 16 months after the plane went missing, while no debris has been found in the South China Sea.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
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