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Background
This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read

Question

Was the sarin professionally produced, and was it stocked in a binary manner?

05 May, 2015

This topic is part of a broader analysis on

Who carried out the chemical attack in Ghouta on August 21, 2013?

Scenariosinfo icon

Calculated Conclusionsinfo icon

Conclusionsinfo icon

1

78%
Binary, unprofessional:

The sarin wasn't professionally produced (using industrial techniques and facilities) and was stocked in a binary manner.

78%

2

18%
Not binary, unprofessional:
The sarin wasn't professionally produced (using industrial techniques and facilities) and wasn't stocked in a binary manner.
18%

3

3.6%
Binary, professional:

The sarin was professionally produced (using industrial techniques and facilities) and was stocked in a binary manner.

3.6%

4

0.02%
Not binary, professional:
The sarin was professionally produced (using industrial techniques and facilities) and wasn't stocked in a binary manner.
0.02%
Implied plausibility
info icon
Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Binary, unprofessional
52%
Not binary, unprofessional
22%
Binary, professional
18%
Not binary, professional
8%
Compatibility with evidence
info icon
Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Binary, unprofessional
78%
Not binary, unprofessional
18%
Binary, professional
3.6%
Not binary, professional
0.02%
Conclusion
info icon
Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Binary, unprofessional
78%
Not binary, unprofessional
18%
Binary, professional
3.6%
Not binary, professional
0.02%

Analysis

Evidence (4 items)

An ethyl group was found in one of the by-products (ethyl isopropyl methylphosphonate) found in the environmental samples.

Sources: UN report
Binary, unprofessional
29%
Not binary, unprofessional
29%
Binary, professional
21%
Not binary, professional
21%
Binary, unprofessional
29%
Not binary, unprofessional
29%
Binary, professional
21%
Not binary, professional
21%

Chemical stabilizers (dibutylchloramine, tributylamine and diisopropylcarbodiimide) were not found in the environmental samples that were taken from the impact sites.

Sources: UN report
Binary, unprofessional
33%
Not binary, unprofessional
29%
Binary, professional
33%
Not binary, professional
5%
Binary, unprofessional
33%
Not binary, unprofessional
29%
Binary, professional
33%
Not binary, professional
5%

The sarin had a recognizable smell (of rotten eggs and cooking gas).

Sources: Abu Omar (eyewitness), Ashraf Hassan (eyewitness)
Binary, unprofessional
41%
Not binary, unprofessional
26%
Binary, professional
31%
Not binary, professional
3%
Binary, unprofessional
41%
Not binary, unprofessional
26%
Binary, professional
31%
Not binary, professional
3%

Hexafluorophosphate was found in the environmental samples that were taken from the area of the impact sites.

Sources: UN report
Binary, unprofessional
41%
Not binary, unprofessional
41%
Binary, professional
9%
Not binary, professional
9%
Binary, unprofessional
41%
Not binary, unprofessional
41%
Binary, professional
9%
Not binary, professional
9%

Discussioninfo icon

This topic is part of a broader analysis. To view the discussion page of the main analysis, click below:
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