This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read
Question
Was Hae still at school around 2:30-2:45 PM on January 13?
21 Sep, 2015This topic is part of a broader analysis on Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?
Scenarios
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
54%
Yes.
54%
2
46%
No.
46%
Implied plausibility
Likelihoods based only on other elements of the analysis, not considering evidence of this sub-topic.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Compatibility with evidence
Likelihoods based only on evidence of this sub-topic, assuming all hypotheses equally plausible.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Conclusion
Final likelihoods, combining plausibility and evidence.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Analysis
Evidence (3 items)
According to Summer (Hae's friend), on January 13 Hae talked with her in school around 2:45 - 3:00 PM regarding a wrestling match with Randallstown that evening.
Sources: The View From LL2
Yes
56%
No
44%
Yes
56%
No
44%
According to Inez Butler (a teacher at Hae's school), she had a conversation with Hae in school around 2:30 PM on January 13 in which Hae said that she would be back for the wrestling match that was scheduled for after 5:00 PM.
Sources: The View From LL2
Yes
56%
No
44%
Yes
56%
No
44%
According to Debbie, Hae was at school between 2:45 - 3:15 PM.
Sources: EvidenceProf Blog
Yes
53%
No
47%
Yes
53%
No
47%
Discussion
Serial: Who killed Hae Min Lee?