This analysis is based on an older version of our inference model which is accurate but more difficult to read
Question
Is the image of a fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 authentic?
04 May, 2015Scenarios
Calculated Conclusions
Conclusions
1
>99.9999%
No, the image of a fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was faked.
>99.9999%
2
<0.0001%
Yes, there is an authentic image of a fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 (but not of an Su-25).
<0.0001%
3
<0.0001%
Yes, there is an authentic image of an Su-25 fighter jet firing on Malaysia Airlines flight MH17.
<0.0001%
Implied plausibility
Fake
99.98%
Authentic (other)
0.02%
Authentic (Su-25)
0.001%
Compatibility with evidence
Fake
>99.9999%
Authentic (other)
<0.0001%
Authentic (Su-25)
<0.0001%
Conclusion
Fake
>99.9999%
Authentic (other)
<0.0001%
Authentic (Su-25)
<0.0001%
Analysis
Evidence (6 items)
In the image of a fighter jet firing on MH17, the wings on the jet are angled backwards.
Fake
50%
Authentic (other)
50%
Authentic (Su-25)
0.0006%
Fake
50%
Authentic (other)
50%
Authentic (Su-25)
0.0006%
The topography and layout of the picture show the fighter jet just southwest of Donetsk and MH17 just north of Donetsk.
Fake
99.98%
Authentic (other)
0.01%
Authentic (Su-25)
0.01%
Fake
99.98%
Authentic (other)
0.01%
Authentic (Su-25)
0.01%
In the image of a fighter jet firing on MH17, the
timestamp is in standard time rather than military time.
Fake
50%
Authentic (other)
25%
Authentic (Su-25)
25%
Fake
50%
Authentic (other)
25%
Authentic (Su-25)
25%
In the image of a fighter jet firing on MH17, the logo on MH17 is exclusively in front of the wing
of the plane.
Fake
33%
Authentic (other)
33%
Authentic (Su-25)
33%
Fake
33%
Authentic (other)
33%
Authentic (Su-25)
33%
In the image showing a fighter jet firing on MH 17, the image of the plane is large.
Fake
50%
Authentic (other)
25%
Authentic (Su-25)
25%
Fake
50%
Authentic (other)
25%
Authentic (Su-25)
25%
The image shows an air-to-air missile shooting from a fighter jet towards MH17.
Fake
96.8%
Authentic (other)
1.6%
Authentic (Su-25)
1.6%
Fake
96.8%
Authentic (other)
1.6%
Authentic (Su-25)
1.6%
Discussion
Who shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 over Ukraine on July 17, 2014?
The image shows an air-to-air missile shooting from a fighter jet towards MH17.