An IDF shooter shot Shireen, not due to crossfire.
Question
Who killed Al Jazeera Journalist Shireen Abu Akleh?
04 Aug, 2022Answer
Background
Shireen Abu Akleh was a Palestinian-American journalist who worked as a reporter for the Arabic-language channel Al Jazeera. In the early hours of May 11, 2022, while wearing a blue vest with "PRESS" written on it, she was shot and killed while covering a raid by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank. The evidence available so far has failed to settle the question, conflicting accusations have been made by both sides, and therefore, a probabilistic inference analysis is required.
The analysis investigates the following hypotheses and scenarios:
| Name of the hypotheses | Examples |
| IDF aimed fire | An IDF soldier killed Shireen in scenarios such as: •Targeting the journalists, thinking they were militants. •Targeting a group of people walking towards the force, without knowing or caring who they were. •Targeting the journalists, believing they were journalists, for no military reason. •Targeting Palestinians at random out of anger or hate. •Assassination of Shireen because of who she was (by order from above or local decision). |
| IDF crossfire | An IDF soldier accidentally hit the journalists while shooting at a military target. |
| Palestinian assassination | A Palestinian militant assassinated Shireen as a false flag operation, in scenarios such as: •Shooting specifically at Shireen because of who she was, to implicate the IDF. •Shooting at journalists, to implicate the IDF. •Shooting at Shireen due to a Palestinian internal issue, assuming IDF will be implicated. |
| Palestinian mistaken identity | A Palestinian militant mistook the journalists for members of the Israel Defense Forces and shot them. |
| Palestinian crossfire | A Palestinian militant accidentally hit the journalists while shooting at IDF soldiers. |
Hypotheses Considered
Calculated Results
Calculated Results
1
87%
An IDF shooter shot Shireen, not due to crossfire.
87%
2
8%
A Palestinian militant assassinated Shireen.
8%
3
3.1%
A Palestinian militant mistook the journalists for IDF soldiers.
3.1%
4
1.7%
An IDF soldier accidentally hit the journalists while shooting at armed Palestinians.
1.7%
5
0.03%
A Palestinian militant accidentally hit the journalists while shooting at IDF soldiers.
0.03%
Starting Point
Initial Probabilities
Name
Initial Likelihoods
IDF Aimed Fire
38%
IDF Crossfire
38%
Palestinian Assassination
3.5%
Palestinian Mistaken Identity
11%
Palestinian Crossfire
11%
In order to establish the prior likelihoods for the incident, Rootclaim has collected all known prior instances of journalists killed in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. After filtering these based on similarity to Shireen's case, six incidents remained.
All previous cases of journalists killed in the conflict resulted from IDF fire. Because these cases are contested with regards to the motives of the forces, and as no trials took place, we divided these six cases equally among the two IDF shooter hypotheses.
As no prior instances of journalists killed by Palestinians were found, we generously used additive smoothing and increased each of the two sets of hypotheses (IDF shooter and Palestinian shooter) by 1, dividing them equally into the sub-hypotheses of each set.
Altogether, this generously increased the initial likelihood of the Palestinian hypotheses from 0% to almost 25%.
Name
Initial Likelihoods
IDF Aimed Fire
38%
IDF Crossfire
38%
Palestinian Assassination
3.5%
Palestinian Mistaken Identity
11%
Palestinian Crossfire
11%
Evidence
Effect
Shooter's sector and line of sight
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Audio analyses, corrected by Rootclaim, position the shooter 157 to 243 meters away from Shireen’s position when she was shot, which matches the condition of the bullet recovered from Shireen’s body. Bullet markings left at the scene and the cover provided by a tree to the Palestinians hiding behind it, allowed us to establish likely angles from which the shots could have arrived.
By combining the distances and angles, we were able to map a “shooter’s sector”: the area from which the shots fired at Shireen and her colleagues could have arrived. Of the IDF and Palestinian forces documented that day, only the IDF force is within the shooter’s sector and is the only force with a proven line of sight to Shireen’s position.
As all documented Palestinian forces are eliminated by the evidence above, we account for the possibility of an undocumented Palestinian shooter, by generously estimating a 50% likelihood of such an occurrence.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Characteristics of the shooting
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
The accuracy, timing, and synchronization of the shots with the movement of the journalists, significantly reduce the likelihood of the crossfire hypotheses, as we would not expect such syncing with those who are not the target of the shots.
These elements and the fact that the shots continued when the journalists were running away from the shooter and even at the people who tried to recover Shireen’s body, indicate intentional targeting of the group.
The precision exemplified in the shooting, increases the likelihood of an IDF shooter, as the force involved was trained to this level of accuracy and was armed with equipment making such shots easier.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Palestinian eyewitness testimonies
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Two of the journalists standing with Shireen, Ali al-Samoudi and Shatha Hanaysha, gave eye-witness accounts of the shooting. Their first accounts claim that the shots originated from a rooftop, while later accounts claim the source of the fire was the IDF vehicles. Given that they were aware of the IDF force some 10 minutes before the shooting began, and that it was naturally the likely candidate, we give more weight to their initial account which points to a shooter on the rooftops.
This increases the likelihood of a shooter other than a member of the IDF200m force. However, due to the stressful state of being in the middle of a shooting, we consider this evidence to have limited impact.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Refusal to cooperate
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Both sides have refused in some way to cooperate or initiate an investigation:
The Palestinians have refused to join an Israeli probe into the reporter's death. Instead, the Palestinian Authority (PA) submitted a formal request for an independent investigation by the International Criminal Court. Israel also approached the PA requesting to obtain the bullet to conduct forensic tests and determine if the gun they suspect may have been the source of fire indeed killed her. After initial refusal, officially due to a lack of trust, the Palestinians finally handed over the bullet to American experts on 3rd July 2022.
Israel’s military police claimed the evidence gathered did not allow for the opening of a criminal investigation.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Missing alternative target
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Shireen and the group of journalists were not near any documented IDF forces or Palestinian militants (at least 160m away from the closest documented group), neither were they between two documented opposing groups. This is corroborated by video evidence in the seconds before the shooting showing no armed men in the surrounding vicinity, the audio which documents no shots fired before the ones fired at the journalists, as well as by testimonies given by Palestinian eyewitnesses.
This significantly reduces the likelihood of the crossfire hypotheses.
Name
Effect
Updated Likelihoods
Discussion